Nothing comes easy. If it does, then something is definitely wrong.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Limited (OCCL) BSE Id: 506579 NSE Code: ORIENTCARB

CMP (BSE): Rs.139

CMP (NSE): Not traded in last 30 days (as per moneycontrol.com)

Industry: Chemicals

Oriental Carbon and Chemicals Limited (OCCL), is a company belonging to the Duncan JP Goenka group of companies. OCCL manufactures Insoluble Sulphur, Sulphuric Acid and Oleums. The core business of OCCL is manuacturing and sales of Insoluble Sulphur ,which is used as a vulcanizing agent in the rubber industry. In 1994, OCCL set up a unit for manufacturing of Insoluble sulfur which later emerged as the star product of the group.

(1) Insoluble Sulphur:
Insoluble Sulphur is mainly used in tyre industry. The Indian market for Insoluble Sulpur is growing more than the growth rate for the tyre industry due to increasing share of radial tyres in commercial vehicles which consume more Insoluble Sulphur. With the revival of the global economy, the auto sector has picked up significantly resulting in huge demands and huge growth in the auto companies. This has trickled down to the auto ancillary sector and hence the demand for Insoluble Sulphur is growing at a robust pace and this trend is expected to continue in the coming year as new tyre capacities are being added in India.

The consumption of insoluble sulphur in China is nearly five times that of India. This also indicates that there is an ample scope of demand increase in India. Thus the existing capacities will be diverted to cater to the domestic demand and the new capacities (11000 MTPA), being added up at the Mundra plant will cater to the international markets. With the increased domestic demand and increase in international customer / plants base the company does not see any difficulty in selling the new capacities.

OCCL’s Insoluble sulfur units are situated at Dharuhera, in the Indian State of Harayana. Insoluble sulfur manufactured in this plant is marketed as "Diamond Sulf" in India and around the world. One of OCCL's unit in Dharuhera as a designated Export Oriented Unit. The plant, through continuous innovations over the years, is counted among the best in the world. It adheres to total Quality norms and is ISO9001-2000 & EMS14001-2004 Certified. OCCL produces wide range of insoluble sulfur grades which are being widely exported to leading tyre companies around the world. In India OCCL is the undisputed leader with major market share.

(2) Sulphuric Acid and Oleums:
OCCL manufactures both Commercial Grade and Battery Grade Sulphuric Acid and Oleums. Sulphuric Acid finds its application as a dehydrating agent, catalyst, active reactant in chemical processes , solvent , and absorbent. It is used in the process industries from very dilute concentrations for pH control of saline solutions to strong fuming acids used in the dye, explosives , and pharmaceutical industries. Due to recovery in demand and normalization of the raw materials cost, the performance of the sulphuric acid has improved.


Value Addition and Combating Competition:
The demand of value added Insoluble Sulphur grades such as AS, HD grades is growing. The reasons for this are the advantage that it offers such as ease of handling and more production flexibility to the consumer. OCCL through continuous Research and Development efforts, has developed new value added grades many of which are now approved by international tyre companies. This gives an edge to OCCL against competitors from China in the international market besides helping to sustain realisation levels.


OCCL has a small equity base of just 10.31 crores. This is a big positive as the profits are divided among a smaller base and with capacity expansion and more profits, the stock of OCCL will take off exponentially. Thats why I try and go for companies with small equity base. Along with small equity, it is a low debt company with debt equity ratio standing at just 0.2. It is quoting at 1.55 times it book value. Its PE is 4.23 whereas the Industry PE is 5.71. However, in future with the additional capacity of 11000 MTPA, the sales and the earnings of the company will increase resulting in more value creation for the company. Its dividend yield comes to about 2.8% (Rs. 1.5/- dividend was paid for the year 2009-2010).

From FY 2009 to FY 2010, the EPS has increased from Rs. 7.41 to Rs. 28.61. This huge profitability was due to the stable raw material prices which resulted in good profit margins for the company. During FY 2009, the prices were very volatile and the prices of raw materials peaked resulting in low profitabilility. In FY 2010, prices were almost half of the peak prices, resulting in low cost for the company. Like FY2010, even in the current year the prices of the raw materials are stable, which means that it would prove profitable for the company.

With the global economy improving and the auto sector booming, I am very optimistic about OCCL. With the surging demand of insoluble sulphur, the additional capacity will bring in more earnings resulting in more value creation.Buying at current levels and on dips would make the investment in this stock attractive.

Happy Investing.

14 comments:

  1. Hi Purvi,
    I like the way you analyze the business.
    Can you please throw some light on the upcoming Coal India IPO?
    With Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey Vikas,
    Coal India IPO did not excite me much. Particularly because of its risk factors. It is involved in alot of legal proceedings including criminal proceedings, problems related to land aquisition before it could mine its coal reserves, the government would still be the controlling the company which means less negotiation powers of the company itself, prices would be determined by the GoI even when the coal prices are decontrolled, import of low cost coal if available. This can even result in conflict of interests between the investors and the controlling authority. A lot of risks hovers above it. There is one more bill that has been introduced that states that 26% of the profits of the mining companies will go to the local people. This bill is still subject to negotiations. But if it gets passed, 26% of profits means alot. This instead could be ploughed in back in the company and can be used for other future endeavours. So this is one thing which I did'nt quite like.
    If you look at the positives, it is a low cost coal producer in India, and has a monopolistic kind of situation. We all would like to hold companies that enjoy monopoly but I dont like the monopoly which is governed by the government.
    If you look at the financials and try to calculate the PE and P/BV, you will know how expensive it is. I am definitely not impressed by its financials.
    Many research houses and analyst have described it as a DIAMOND in the coal. But it does not appear so to me. I really think that since it is a NAVRATNA it is commanding such a premium. But in my view I dont find it cheap to enter into it for long term at the current valuations.
    This is my view, I may be wrong, the stock can open at a premium on the 1st day, and maybe give excellent returns in a short span of time. But then what?? I definitely am not bullish on this stock for long term. Short term maybe it can do well all owing to the stupid money flowing in from the west.
    Do your own research before investing your money.

    Happy Investing
    Purvi Shah

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello Purvi,
    How are you doing? good to see your messages, you are doing a great job, admire your patience and work. I have a question on Technofab engineering, the cmp is below the IPO,but wanted to know its long term horizon.

    warm regards
    dhiraj
    bangalore

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks a lot Purvi for your valuable opinion.
    With Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Dhiraj,
    Technofab Engineering annual results are not available online. Neither on moneycontrol or bseindia.com. Even on its site they have uploaded just the june quater results. Till I dont have full access to its financials and annual report, wont be able to comment on it.
    Sorry

    Purvi Shah

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Purvi,
    Very nice article. Do you know the market size of insoluble sulfur in India? Is OCCL the top manufacturer of insoluble sulfur in the country? You said that "radial tyres in commercial vehicles consume more Insoluble Sulphur". Is this in comparison with non-radial tyres?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi,

    Well OCCL is the only manufacturer of insoluble sulphur in India. The market scope for its product is huge and growing and to keep up with this growth, OCCL is growing by expanding its capacity and addressing the growing demand. They are also setting up a plant in Mudra which is near completion.
    The increasing share of radial tyres in commerical vehicle segment is in comparision with all the types of tyres. With the share increasin, the foreign auto companies setting up manufacturing plants in India, the demand for insoluble sulpur is set to rise.

    Happy Investing,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  8. You have not given an earning estimate for the next year. I expect an EPS of
    not more than 35 for the current year hence no great increase in price expected till q3 results kick in. Target of 175 possible in the 2nd quarter.

    ReplyDelete
  9. OCCL is a value buy according to me. It is kind of a monopoly. Here more than the future earnings, I am thinking of it being a potential target for M&A. There is potential of great value unlocking.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi, thank you for the stock idea.

    Quick thoughts - With 80% revenue coming from a single product, threat from competition is large. Is there considerable entry barriers in terms of technology or anything else? What is the market share of this com in the insoluble sulphur segment. With direct correlation to the cyclical auto industry, any idea if it has long term contracts with Tyre cos in India? Does it have prospects for exporting aswell?
    The stock has corrected by 21% in a month (so has many stocks in the current market). Have you tracked the volatility of this cos stock prices? With promoter holding at 54% only, the free float is quite large and most likely to be affected by sentiments.

    Your views please

    Vinod

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi Vindy,

    As I have mentioned in my blog, OCCL's product insoluble sulphur is considered as a star product of the group. As far as competition is concerned, OCCL is India's undisputed leader in insoluble sulphur and has major market share. It is more like a monopoly wrt insoluble sulphur in India. OCCL is also coming up with a new manufacturing plant at Mudra with a capacity of 11000 MTPA, which is mainly to cater to the international demand of insoluble sulphur.
    With respect to volatility, I would like to highlight the fact that it has a very small equity base of just 10.31 crores (1.031 cr shares, FV of Rs.10/-)and with promoter holding at 56.13%, the free float is terms of no of shares is less. And in you would have a look at the daily volumes, it is very low. So with low equity, a small rise in profits can lead to a huge upmove in stock price. Similarly when it falls, it can fall on account of a very low volume. But thats the case with all low equity stocks.
    Fundamentally I dont see much wrong compared to the rights in case of OCCL. You can check it out for yourself.

    Thank-You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Purvi,
    One more positive point on OCCL.
    The management looks very sensible. Last yr.for capacity expansion, they took debt and so they reduced the dividend from 4 to 2.
    This as per me is really sensible and not just following the herd mentality of not reducing the dividend.
    This is very good for long-term for retail investors.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi,
    what do you think of the signing of the Share Purchase Agreement with other Promoter of Schrader Duncan Limited ("Schrader Duncan") and Schrader Duncan..this virtually takes ~14cr in cash and brings in a loss making entity on the consolidated basis..Any takeaways?

    Viraj Mehta

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Viraj,

    I am very positive wrt the far sightedness of the management of OCCL. They have been managing the company quite well. Wrt to its recent acquisition of Schrader Duncan, I don't know the actual intention or the thought process of the management, but looking at the business Schrader Duncan is into, it just seems like expanding the business horizons for OCCL. AS far as it being a loss making entity, well turnarounds do happen and for that you need a good management. I have high hopes on OCCL's management. Taking loss on a consolidated basis might be just a temporary thing, if it gets successful with harnessing the symbiotic efficiencies.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete