Nothing comes easy. If it does, then something is definitely wrong.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Value Buy......Screaming at the Loudest....

Oriental Carbon & Chemical Ltd. (OCCL) and Sree Rayalaseema Hi-Strength Hypo Ltd. (SRHHL)

I had mentioned these two stocks last October. From the October levels, they have fallen down. A lot in case of SRHHL. OCCL even fell down to 100 levels but has managed to recover till 133, the CMP. OCCL and SRHHL was broken down on very small volumes. However the optimistic views that I shared wrt them, still stands strong. Infact, I think they have become more attractive in terms of valuation and has a massive amount of value to be realized. In my view, over long term, value always gets realized. So here are two stocks screaming out loud - VALUE BUY.

OCCL is a manufacturer of insoluble sulphur which is used in tyres. I am very optimistic about the auto sector in the long term, thus the demand for insoluble sulphur is set to increase. OCCL is in a kind of monopolistic position, thus putting it in a very sweet spot and making it a great attractive target for merger or aquisition. Value is always realized when there is a potential buyer, and with its monopolistic position in the market, its value can possibly be realized.

OCCL is available at almost its book value and has posted an earing of Rs. 36.30 for the year ending March 2011 as against Rs. 28.61, showing a growth of 26.7% y-o-y. This is incredible. Its PE at the CMP stands at just 3.24. It is a good dividend paying company with dividend yield of 3%. A good thing about it is that it has a very small equity of just Rs.10.31 cr. Thus even a small rise in its earning can reflect in a much higher rise in its market price. A potential MULTIBAGGER.

SRHHL is the only Indian manufacturer of Calcium Hypochlorite. Although being blessed with adequate rainfall, alot of it is wasted and there is less and less of CLEAN and SAFE water available per person. Due to this, water treatment industry has changed considerably during the last 50 years and is growing with each passing year. Thus a lot og growth potential lies ahead for companies involves in manufacturing of water treatment chemicals, just like SRHHL. SRHHL is one such company that is dedicated to research and development of products in water treatment and purification.

SRHHL is internationally recognized as the provider of unmatched quality products through its world-class sodium process technology developed through highly skilled in-house research and development team. It has grown to become a global leader in exports too.

SRHHL is available at such high discount, almost at 0.63 times its book value at the CMP. Its EPS for the year ended 2011 stood at Rs.18.97 against Rs. 3.28 in the previous year, showing a growth of 4.78 times. At the CMP and the FY11 earnings, its PE stands at just 2.25. It paid a dividend of Rs.1.5 per share resulting in a dividend yield of 3.5% at the CMP. Like OCCL, even SRHHL has a very small equity base of Rs.10.45 cr. It looks very attractive at the current valuations.

Happy Value Investing.

42 comments:

  1. Hi Purvi,
    Excellent value buys recommended by you.
    Particularly OCCL is just screaming value buy.
    No doubt about it.
    Apart from you reasoning, few more positive points on OCCL

    1 - Continously reducing debt since last 5 yrs ( very very very rare to find). Now total debt is less than last yr net profit.
    2 - Though Promoters have pledged shares, % is coming down every quarter.
    3 - Very Simple business to understand.

    But as I have seen , market is quiet efficient most of the times, so the CMP is correctly justified.

    So few negative points

    1 - Chemical business is very much cyclical in nature.
    2 - There is a limit to which this company can earn. Say it can earn 10 times more than this in future. But it cant earn 100 times more for sure.

    Felt these are few relevant points. So posted.

    With Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Vikas,

    I like the points that you made, however I have some serious doubts about the markets being efficient. But I appreciate the points that you made. Thanks for sharing.

    Thank-You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  3. very nice blog... very well explained too for laymen like us... have invested in srhhl... will also be looking forward to invest in occl too.

    ReplyDelete
  4. hi Purvi,
    could you please have a look at Natural Capsules Ltd.The Financials of the comapany is very good .its been posting good ROCE,EPS,low debt and on top of it low equity.If Pharma is a big story then requirement of capsule swill be there and hence the visibility of earnings in the future.
    pls give your comments.
    regards
    surjeet

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Surjeet,

    I agree the financials look good for Natural Capsules. And I even agree that Pharma is a big story. The other thing is the rate at which the advancements are taking place in the pharma sector is commendable. But keeping this in mind, the future of capsules seems a lil bit hazy to me. The primary reason being the uncertain future of the drug delivery systems. You never know, capsules might become obsolete in future if something new comes up. So I would not comment on its future prospects. However, on basis of the financials, it looks attractive.

    Thank You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi Purvi & Fellow-Bloggers,
    Nice discussion going on. Really healthy for the blog.
    Hi Surjeet, if you think positive about Natural Capsules, please check Medi-Caps. As per valuations, Medi-caps is better value buy.
    But what Purvi says is THE IMP. POINT.And MARKET KNOWS THAT.
    I have been tracking both of them since 1 yr but have nearly no gain at all.
    Thats not good.
    Hi Purvi,
    Coming back to OCCL. I didnt find the current debt status of OCCL. Can you please tell / give me the link for the same.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Vikas,

    AS far as OCCL is concerned, I did not get the latest annual report, so cant give you the current status of its debt. Will have to wait till the annual reports are made available on its site.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  8. Ok Purvi.
    I need one more valuable opinion from you.
    Whats your take on Bajaj Holdings & Investments.
    The details are in latest annual report, moneycontrol's company page & its message-board.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Vikas,

    I went through the Financials of Bajaj Holding and Investment, and it looks very very attractive. But would want to go through its annual report in detail. Will get back to you soon.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Vikas,

    I went through the annual report of Bajaj Holding and Investment. I went through its investment portfolio, it is quite impressive. Plus its performance also depends on its 2 major invesmtments- Bajaj Auto and Bajaj Finserve, which has posted amazing results and I think will continue to show good growth in the future. So Bajaj Holding and Investment seems very good.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  11. Yes Purvi. I have already invested @ 775 and holding on from 6 months.
    My logic is this

    Even if , it has the present discount from IV, as the IV of both Bajaj Auto & Finance will increase so is the discounted value.
    So the CMP will keep on increasing.
    And on top of it - Excellent dividend yield and ZERO DEBT ( Sorry I have a weakness for zero debt companies)

    Its from Bajaj Group which is far far trustworthy than Reliance.

    Tata Group is also good but Tata Investments have huge debt and their holding % in the subsidiaries is very less.

    These are few more positive points.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Vikas,

    Yes, I have also noticed that you like zero debt companies. But debt within limit which can be serviced well is not a bad thing, but can actually help the company in bringing down its overall cost of capital.

    Neways coming back to Tata Investments, I like that stock and it does not have any debt. It is a debt free company. But yes comparing Bajaj Holding and Investment with Tata Investment, Bajaj Holding seemed more impressive and attractive. But Tata Investment too is a good stock to hold. Thanks for sharing this stock. It looks really attractive.

    Thank You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  13. Yes Purvi.
    Sorry about Tata Investments. yes.Its debt free.
    Dont remember, if I asked you about Balmer Lawrie Company Ltd.
    Whats your opinion on it.
    I know the business model is not that great but a consistent performance and good dividend yield.
    Think a good value buy.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hi Vikas,

    I have been tracking Balmer Lawrie since many weeks now. But recently this week it went up quite a bit.
    And according to me it has a good business model since it so highly diversified. And I am very optimistic about its travel and tours business and think it has a lot of potential in that particular segment. Even I share the same view that is a value buy but definitely at a lower price.

    Thank you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thanks Purvi for your positive view on Balmer Lawrie & Company.
    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Purvi & Fellow-Bloggers,
    check out the following link to understand the business potential of Google!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FS-naXDe0uM

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dear Ms.Purvi
    If any one acquires 27% of SRHHL [promoter holds 26%]theoretically for Rs.1.26 crore [atCMP3,72], he will get control of four companies-
    1.SRHHL
    2.Sree Rayalaseema Alkalies
    3.Sree Rayalaseema Hypo
    4.Roopa Ind.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi Purvi & fellow-Bloggers,
    Came across one more excellent value buy.
    A recommendation by Ashish Chugh.
    Narmada Gelatines.
    If you dont mind Purvi, giving below the other blog link where I came across it

    http://www.indianstocksnews.com/2011/07/small-cap-stock-to-buy-narmada-gelatin.html

    It really looks very attractive @CMP.
    But mind you one thing, I have been following Ashish Chugh's recommendations since 1 yr, but most of them are in red only.
    But this one is different as its DEBT FREE!

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  19. Narmada Gelatins has been a value stock where the only trigger is "Sale(Promoter holds75%)"

    Adopt "Buy the Dips" strategy.
    Buy at Rs 62 to 69 or below Rs 75.
    Reason for Buy Range-
    1.Fair Value based on 5 year Average: Rs.66.8
    2.Cash Bargain (2011):Rs.62.4
    3.Debt Capacity Bargain(2011):Rs.69.2
    4.Dividend Price at 5.4% yield:Rs.48.1

    Target for normal business cycle Rs.155.7
    Reason for Target:
    1.Based on E/P : Rs.155.1
    2.Based on AAA E/P:Rs.98
    3.Range on E/P- Rs.51 to Rs.322

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi Vikas
    Narmada Gelatins has been a value stock where the only trigger is "Sale(Promoter holds75%)"

    Adopt "Buy the Dips" strategy.
    Buy at Rs 62 to 69 or below Rs 75.
    Reason for Buy Range-
    1.Fair Value based on 5 year Average: Rs.66.8
    2.Cash Bargain (2011):Rs.62.4
    3.Debt Capacity Bargain(2011):Rs.69.2
    4.Dividend Price at 5.4% yield:Rs.48.1

    Target for normal business cycle Rs.155.7
    Reason for Target:
    1.Based on E/P : Rs.155.1
    2.Based on AAA E/P:Rs.98
    3.Range on E/P- Rs.51 to Rs.322
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  21. Thanks Appasamy for your detailed reply.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi Purvi,
    Posting below video link which discusses about Holding companies. Of course, its relevant to Bajaj Holdings in which both of us are interested.

    http://www.moneycontrol.com/video/market-outlook/check-out-theequitydeskcoms-viewsholding-cos_566277.html?utm_source=Article_Vid

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hi Purvi,
    Visited your blog for the first time yesterday!!!Great job at compiling all the data. Appreciate the hard work that you put in.

    OCCL---Everything that you guys have brought to blog visitors notice looks rosy. But OCCL fails on of the the most important criteria for investing in a company---The Management. I wish they put in more time in the board room planning than spending at a Derby club...The promoters history is not that great( we all know about the "Duncans" story). I have been holding OCCL for more than 10 years now. Have not been rewarded for my patience yet!!!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hi Piyush,

    I have looked at the chart of OCCL for the last 10 years and it has increased 10 times and has been paying dividend regularly except for the year 2006. I dont know what your expectations are, because for me if some stock gives me 10 times the returns in 10 years, it is great.
    The other point that you raised about the management, I would like to say that they have expansion plans in place and have even started working on it.

    Thank You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Purvi,
    Hearty Congrats for your call on OCCL. You had given the call months back and now Dalal Street has come up with recommendation on OCCL in 29 Aug 2011 issue in their choice scrip section.
    Hats off to you.
    Keep the excellent work going.
    Also please recommend some excellent businesses at fair valuations.

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  26. Hi Everyone,

    1st phase of expansion of OCCL has commenced production from 17th August which has increased its production capacity by 50%. Entire increased production is already sold out. OCCL has also started implementation of 2nd phase of expansion. It cant get better than this.

    Happy Investing,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi, when you say production is sold out, does that mean they have long term contracts with customers for this additional capacity? Is there a Raw Material price escalation clause too (can the increase in price of raw materials be passed on to customers in future?).
    Which quarter will reflect the increase in revenues and what would be the impact on profits considering depreciation of the new plants and interest cost (if they borrowed for expansion). And when is the balance expansion slated to be completed, have they tied up orders for that capacity too?

    Thank You for the updates, appreciate your close tracking.

    Purvi, one last question for you - among all the stock recommended by you is OCCL your highest conviction stock? It seemed so to me especially after the update above

    Thank You

    Vindy

    ReplyDelete
  28. Hi Vindy,

    I think OCCL is managing the company quite well, the results and the expansions speak for themselves. Apart from that they handling a large market share, I am sure they would have long term contracts with the customers for their added capacity. I dont know about the details of the contracts with their customers, so wont be able to comment on the price escalation clause.
    As far as realization of revenues and profits is concerned, a part of it would be shown in the current quater because the production on additional capacities has alreasy started. As revenues flow in, debt servicing would be taken care of accordingly.
    Looking at how they sold their additional capacity production in advance, I think the same would be repeated for the balance additional capacity.
    Among all the stocks that I have shared, OCCL is definitely the one I would recommend to everyone.

    Thank-you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi Vindy,
    As far as you queries go, I came across one article of ICRA's view on OCCL. Its pdf file. So cant attach here. But you will easily find it as first search result when you put 'OCCL & ICRA' in Google search.
    Mind you that article is old but may be of some help.
    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  30. Hi Purvi & fellow bloggers,

    Great work done by you in digging up undervalued stocks. Thanks to Vikas who pointed this site to me.

    On a quick reading, my observations/concerns on OCCL are as under:

    1. Question to ponder is what will make this stock expensive. Since OCCL is a strategic supplier to some tyre players, M&A could be one catalyst as you mentioned but so far no such news. So, just a matter of conjecture as of now.
    2. The product insoluble sulphur could be monopoly of OCCL. In general, industrial intermediates do not command very high multiples. Moreover, it has to be seen with industry PE for chemicals & related sector which is in 5-6 range.
    3. Not very clear why sundry debtors have gone up to Rs 29 crore in FY2011. I thought these guys should have good bargaining power being critical supplies.
    4. Management is not fancied, B2B business, stock ownership is narrow, no major funds holding, stock will continue to languish unless there is very strong recovery in broader markets.
    5. Couldn’t get exact figures on total capacity of OCCL after Mundra round of capex. They are adding 11000 MTPA in all, so by how much this will increase their existing capacity, and revenue estimates (may be FY13 for full year figure) after completing this expansion.
    6. Dumping by Chinese producers at lower prices could be a threat to OCCL's higher margins.

    Certainly, a decent stock with fine prospects. Continuing weakness in market will give opportunity to add some of these stocks on declines.

    Keep up the good work, regards

    Shikhar
    I blog at http://www.investor-link.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  31. Hi Shikhar,

    A diamond in its raw form is not very attractive. Until and unless it is polished, cut and shaped, it does not appear attractive. Once that is done, it attracts the eye of many. I think OCCL is in process of transforming into a diamond.

    As far as your concern about the sundry debtors is concerned, the reason for such high nos is because of sales being more in the last quater.

    I believe in just one thing, VALUE IS ALWAYS REALIZED. Even if there are no major funds holding OCCL does not matter. Sooner or later, value will be realized. That is why I have mentioned it as a value buy. It has still not caught the eye of many, which is why I think its good to buy these shares. Once it catches the eye, sky will be the limit. Patience will always be rewarded.

    OCCL's installed capacity before Mudra's expansion stood at 12000 MTPA. Currently OCCL has started production from the recently added 5500 MTPA capacity (1st Phase) at Mudra SEZ. The remaining 5500 MTPA (2nd phase) will be completed by 2013, which will bring the total capacity of OCCL at 23000 MTPA.

    OCCL has developed new value added grades many of which are now approved by the international tyre companies. OCCL is also working on development of pre-dispersed insoluble sulphur which will be a value added form of insoluble sulphur. The trend of shift of demand to value added insoluble sulphur grades such as AS, HD grades continues. The reason being ease of handling and more production flexibility to the consumers. This gives an edge to OCCL against the competitors from China in the international markets besides helping to sustain realization levels.

    Thanks for bringing up your concerns. It helps me alot. And thanks for the appreciation.

    Thank-you,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  32. Hi Purvi,

    Just chanced upon this blog while googling this scrip.

    Company is dependent on just a single product. Do you have any idea on what could substitute insoluble sulphur?

    If there is something, it would be a major event risk.

    Shiv Kumar

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi Shiv,

    You are right the risk of substitution hovers above OCCL. I even tried to find if there are any substitutes to the product, could not find any substitute. And if you look at the demand of insoluble sulphur, it is just growing, which puts OCCL in a very sweet spot.

    Thank You,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  34. Hello Purvi,

    Many thanks for sharing stock recommendations like, OCCL.

    I really liked the overall information available on the blog. It's really awesome.

    I do similar kind of activity using my blog - http://indianstockmarketexpert.blogspot.com/.

    Hope you'll like it.

    Regards,
    Pratik Modi

    ReplyDelete
  35. Hi Purvi & Fellow-Bloggers,
    Giving belwo the link for details of Radhakishan Damani'( Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's friend & MENTOR)s stock portfolio.

    http://www.rmdhar.com/index.php/2011/09/11/radhakishan-damanis-multibagger-stock-portfolio-picks/

    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hi Purvi, check this link http://www.valuepickr.com/forum/untested-worth-a-look/862522119 there is a very active discussion on OCCL which has just heatedup here. Your presence in the forum will help a lot.
    Rgds
    Vindy

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi Purvi,
    First of all congrats for the recent run-up in OCCL. Think has many miles to go.
    Recently came across few excellent thought provoking and hilarious videos of Prof.Vaidyanathan.

    Giving below 2 links

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-QFYMnUL16c

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9gjofsi4vI&feature=related

    It gives true picture of Indian economy from an Indian economist and not any foreigner.

    A must watch.
    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hi Purvi,
    Whats your take on the latest quarterly results of OCCL
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  39. Hi purvi,
    Thanks a lot for spotting OCCL. THANKS TO VIKAS TOO FOR LETTING ME KNOW THIS BLOG.
    THANKS
    SRAVANI

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi Vikas,

    There is a growth in the topline Q-O-Q, but the same is not reflected in the bottomline, due to increased expenditure and interest cost, due to investment its 2nd phase of expansion project. Once the expansions are complete, the efficiencies are reached, it will reflect in a much better topline and an even better bottomline. Patience will be the key.

    Happy Investing,
    Purvi P. Shah

    ReplyDelete
  41. Hi Purvi,
    OCCL is showing some downtrend in current market.
    Lets see what happens.
    Need your valuable opinion on 2 stocks
    1 - NESCO
    2 - Mayur Uniquoters

    I have taken initial 20% exposure in them.
    But need your analysis on them.
    Thanks in advance.
    Regards,
    Vikas

    ReplyDelete
  42. Do you think their purchase of a sick company (recently) raises question on their motives?

    ReplyDelete